CA State Senate Thinks It’s Normal … NOT

I’ve not been writing much since Election Day because 100 plus hour work weeks tend to stifle one’s creativity, and my business always comes first. In that a large part of my workload has been directly affected by redistricting in the Congress and State Legislatures I thought I’d regale you with some of the absurdity that modern politics has created.

We have states that held their elections with their new districts only to have them struck down and now they’ve rolled back to their old districts. In essence people voted for legislators in November that do not represent them today.

We have states that have legislators sitting in districts that have been declared unconstitutional by the courts so they will have to create all new districts for the 2014 elections, at taxpayer expense of course.

We have states that reintroduced floterial districts, a practice thought to be extinct after the 2000 census but au contraire, where certain portions of the state have individual districts and other districts that overlay the individual ones.

But the winner, without even a close second, is the California State Senate. From their website that attempts to explain the utter lunacy they have created (emphasis is mine):

Due to redistricting, Senate districts have a unique issue that Assembly and Congressional districts do not have. Of the Senate districts established by the Citizens Redistricting Commission in 2011, only the odd-numbered districts went into effect for the 2012 election cycle. The new even-numbered districts will go into effect for the 2014 election cycle, and the even-numbered districts previously established by the 2001 redistricting will continue to exist until 2014. These unique circumstances create some areas of overlap between the old and new districts (“accelerated areas”) and some areas without coverage (“deferred areas”). For the 2013-14 Regular Session of the Legislature, each accelerated area essentially has two Senators representing the area and each deferred area has none. The Senate Committee on Rules will assign a Senator to provide appropriate constituent services to each deferred area. This is a normal consequence of the redistricting process.

The words alone are confusing and idiotic enough but the pictures, just one of which is below, are even more absurd and lunatic.

Now there are 23 other states that have staggered elections in their Senates, where half of the districts are up for election every two years, and they all did the normal thing. They simply adopted their new districts where the Senators running in 2012 ran in the new districts and the other half began to represent their new districts on the first day of the Senate session. This plan actually gives the legislators due to run in 2014 an opportunity to meet their new constituents before asking for their vote for reelection, and has the added benefit of not exposing the stupidity that has become pervasive in today’s political arenas.

Take a minute and look at the California State Senate website and if you agree that their solution makes sense and is normal, kindly do me the service of not relocating anywhere near my farm. Thanks!

The GOP Debacle: Manpower, Message and Mutiny

It’s been three weeks since the elections and, while I’ve been quite busy, I’ve had a difficult time coming to terms with the breadth of reasons the GOP suffered what can only be described as a debacle on November 6 in the Presidential and Senate races.

Some may argue debacle is too strong a word but the definition reads “chaotic failure – a sudden disaster, defeat or humiliating failure” and that, in my opinion, is spot on.

Despite punditry from the talking heads who claimed to know the outcome was easily predicted, which is pretentious at best and lunatic at worst, election night for the GOP proved to be both a “sudden disaster” and a “humiliating failure” so the noun is correct.

As the title states there are three principal reasons for the party’s failure across the board. Based on latest counts, Governor Romney lost the popular vote by 3.5% and the Electoral College by a whopping 126 votes.

In the Senate the Democrats gained two seats which is particularly disconcerting since they had to defend 23 of the 33 seats up for election. While the GOP did hold the House majority as expected they lost 8 seats from the 2008 election but only held 6 seats and the Democrats gained 11 when open seats are included.

Overall it was a debacle of almost epic proportions so let’s look at the three reasons in greater detail.

Manpower

As I wrote in Obama Wins With Great Ground Game, the Obama campaign had a ground game that was vastly superior to that of Romney’s and the GOP. Briefly recapping, the average Democratic bias from the last 12 national polls conducted as late as November 3 was a plus 3.7% but the final delta was plus 6% nationally and 5.6% in the key swing states.

That represents an electorate that was virtually the same as 2008 which many analysts, myself included, missed badly as many indicators foresaw a much lower bias. My estimate of 1.9% was off considerably and many Republican strategists and pundits were even further off the mark.

Of the three factors there is no doubt in my mind this is the most impactful, and where the Republicans are going to have to elevate their game considerably before the 2014 mid-terms and the 2016 general election.

Message

More accurately this may be better referred to as a missing or mixed message. There was a single constant throughout the 2012 election cycle and that was voters considered the economy and jobs as their top issue. Yet Republicans failed to consistently remain on message in this area and further failed by simply attacking Obama’s record without forcefully offering a succinct alternative. Whether the Obama campaign effectively baited the Romney campaign into discourse that was counterproductive or the epic message failures that strayed to social issues is, for the moment, immaterial.

The bottom line is the GOP had a golden opportunity to paint a picture of a better future for America and they failed miserably. I’ll address the message issue and more in an upcoming article entitled It’s Time For The GOP to Swing Their Compass.

Mutiny

This issue was by far the most challenging to grasp and I admit I still don’t have all the answers but there are certain numbers and trends that are quite disconcerting.

On October 28 the last six polls in each of the eight swing states – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin – showed an average support from Conservatives that favored Romney 87% to 10% but exit polling found that Obama picked up 10% of those voters on election day.

A more detailed look at the support by ideology for each candidate bears this mutiny out and graphically expresses the impact relative to Liberal and Moderate support.

In the same eight day period Obama netted a 3% gain from Liberals and 2% gain from Moderates, both of which pale in comparison to the 10% gain amongst Conservatives. I can comfortably attribute the Liberal and Moderate gains to the aforementioned highly effective GOTV effort by the Obama campaign but the Conservative abandonment is another issue altogether.

The targets of this mutiny may seem easy to identify but in reality it’s a bit more complicated.

Many conservative pundits were quick to group Evangelicals, Social Conservatives, Tea Partiers and the “radical right” as the offenders but the numbers don’t bear those assertions out.

Ralph Reed wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, Round Up the Usual Social Conservative Suspects, which tried to defuse the attacks on his supporters and their so-called SoCon allies. Reed states:

They must resist the temptation to form a circular firing squad, especially one with evangelicals and their social-conservative allies in the middle.

The problem is that the numbers show Reed and his associates failed to deliver the Evangelical and SoCon vote with 21% of self-described Evangelicals voting for Obama, or 5% more than the 16% average for all Conservatives cited above. Tea Party supporters though were more in line with the October 28 numbers with a final split of just 11% voting for Obama while 87% went for Romney.

Let me say it for all to hear, there will never be a President elected in the United States that runs on a hard-core conservative social issues platform. If this bothers you or you disagree, get over it and start coming to terms with the realities of the evolving electorate. What these voters believe they have gained by eschewing Governor Romney in favor of President Obama I can’t speak to since the logic, if there really is any, eludes me but the numbers are clear that many Evangelicals and SoCons bolted from Romney and the GOP.

The GOP is currently in a state of great upheaval suffering from a clear and concise platform that connects with the broader group of voters they will need in 2014 and beyond. There are few easy answers but the solutions are not rocket-science either and I’ll delve into them in greater detail in my next article, It’s Time For The GOP to Swing Their Compass.

Don’t Pay The Ransom, I’ve Escaped … Almost

As I wrote before I did take a very much needed break from politics and social media after the elections but didn’t anticipate it lasting quite this long. While the break was initially voluntary it’s been extended due to a huge amount of post-election work with our directory and data services company (that small business that I didn’t build but seem to have to do a lot of work to keep it going).

Things are starting to settle a bit and I do have notes and outlines for several articles including why the GOP got its ass handed to them on November 6; where the Republican Party is now and where it must go if it is to survive as we know it, or want to know it may be more accurate; and the next installment in a dormant but important article series about social media influence scoring.

I hope and trust all my friends and followers enjoyed a safe and happy Thanksgiving with their family and friends, and I look forward to getting back to writing very soon. Thank you!

Breaks Are Good, Especially This One

My self-imposed break from politics and social media is going to slide into this weekend, and I’m enjoying it immensely. Not that I’m sitting on my butt because my data services company is processing the outcome of the elections for more than 75,000 races at the federal, state and local level.

I’m keeping up with things and making notes for a commentary article early next week about the what and why of the Presidential and Congressional races and where does the GOP go from here, but I’m not missing the daily grind at all.

Given this will be my last Congress and I’ll do the mid-terms in 2014 but after that am planning on *walking away* and going back to my love of racing offshore sailboats, I’ve been listening to a lot of Jimmy Buffett and daydreaming of halcyon days at sea.

I trust all my friends and followers are getting along well and I will be back on a regular basis next week with commentary and articles here and at The Right Sphere. Until then fair winds and calm seas!

Obama Wins With Great Ground Game

I got it wrong and it’s time to eat a little crow, lavish some praise where due and chastise a few people who are deserving of such.

President Obama won reelection last night for one primary reason, an outstanding and superior ground game. Jim Messina, the entire campaign staff and their volunteers simply outworked the Romney campaign and the GOP. Congratulations to them all on a job well done.

The part I got wrong was woefully underestimating the voter turnout delta though when I plugged in the D +6 variable in my models this morning it output a popular vote margin for Obama of 1.8% and an Electoral College margin of 332 to 206. I accept I blew the party delta badly but take some small solace in knowing my models are valid.

I know it was the ground game that won it for the President both empirically and anecdotally.

From a mathematical perspective the average Democrat party delta from the last 12 national polls and last 6 swing state polls in each state, without any adjustments whatsoever, was 3.7%. Gallup predicted an R +2 advantage in 2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008 and there were other indicators that voter turnout would be closer to 2004 than 2008. My ultimate determination was a Democratic advantage of 1.9% which turned out to be 4.1% short of the actual national turnout.

Exit polling from yesterday produced the following national and swing state averages, and it’s easy to see the electorate was much more like 2008 than 2004. The national advantage for Democrats turned out to be 6% (2008 was 7%) and the swing state average was plus 5.6% (2008 was 5.2%). Obama’s team actually increased the advantage in the battleground states yesterday from four years ago.

The White voter versus Latino voter numbers decreased by 2.6% and increased by 1% respectively in the swing states, and that was the ballgame when overlaid with the 5.6% party affiliation advantage.

The chastisement I mentioned earlier is addressed at the RNC and the Republican party on a whole, and dovetails with the anecdotal evidence of the superiority of Obama’s ground game. The difference in the effectiveness and reach of Obama’s grassroots ground game when compared to the Romney campaign is incredibly stark. I know many folks who stepped up for the Romney campaign and they deserve nothing but gratitude for doing what they did but the problem stemmed from the top down.

I have a close friend who has run a precinct for the GOP in northern Virginia (right in the heart of the area Romney needed to stunt Obama’s advantage) for more than a decade. I spoke with him this morning about his frustration with the lack of local commitment from the RNC. He was provided with 12 signs (4 each for the Presidential, Senate and House races) and 1 young adult volunteer while there was a sea of Obama and Democratic candidate signage and approximately two dozen volunteers.

The Obama people were driving to get voters and bring them to vote while engaging a substantially larger percentage of voters at the poll. If this is, as I suspect, indicative of both GOTV efforts across the country yesterday it’s no wonder Obama won. What is shocking is the margins weren’t larger.

There’s been plenty already written today about yesterday being a wake-up call for the Republican Party on many fronts so I won’t regurgitate it here. However it is clear to me that the GOP better decide what they want to be when they grow up soon or risk a fracturing of the party and it’s imminent demise.

In closing, I’ll once again afford the Obama campaign and their volunteers on the ground the accolades they so rightfully earned. Ironically the outcome of the 2012 election came down to motivated people and maybe that’s exactly the way it should be, yesterday and in the future.

A Comfortable Win for Mitt Romney

Governor Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States with a comfortable victory on Tuesday.

I predict the popular vote will be +4.3% and the Electoral College will be 285 to 253 based on a final voter affiliation spread of +1.9% favoring the Democrats.

The projected party spread of 1.9% was calculated using the same methodology I explained in November 7th Headline: Romney Wins by 7% using the latest polling available. Further support for that spread was established using the average party affiliations and voter enthusiasm numbers from the last dozen national polls. Additionally the average decline in support for President Obama from 2008 in the eight swing states estimates the same spread.

Colorado – Romney
Advantages in favorability and handling the economy combined with a stronger Republican enthusiasm put Colorado in the Romney column.

Florida – Romney
Romney made big gains following the first debate and has never looked back since. This momentum plus his advantage with seniors makes this one a no-brainer for Romney.

Iowa – Romney
The numbers say this one will be tight but a 4% lead in handling the economy and the Evangelical vote will let Romney squeak by and add this one to the win column.

Michigan- Obama
Obama played this one well and established a narrative and early lead that Romney just cannot overcome. Not one of my *eight swing states* but this one is solidly Obama’s.

Nevada – Obama
With his big lead among Latinos and the upper-hand in favorability and handling the economy, the numbers give this one to Obama. However if the Mormon vote is much larger than anticipated this could be a surprise winner for Romney.

New Hampshire – Romney
Strong favorability and handling the economy numbers plus a smaller but valuable edge in Independent support and voter enthusiasm push this one to Romney.

Ohio – Romney
The tightest of the tight with the numbers, on the surface, making it almost impossible to call but the last six polls averaged a D +6% sampling and by the slightest of margins that swings this plum to Romney.

Pennsylvania – Obama
The upset opportunity of the election but Obama’s early lead and strength in the Philly area make this just a bit too much of a stretch for Romney and I’m keeping it where I’ve had it, Obama.

Virginia – Romney
A double-digit lead with Independents is probably enough to slide this one under the Romney column but, here again, the last six polls are oversampled with Democrats and the real numbers make this one easier than expected for Romney.

Wisconsin – Obama
Another upset possibility but Obama is just strong enough across the board to hang on to this one and has a reasonable edge with Independents, advantage Obama.

In conclusion, it comes down to very small deltas in virtually every swing state but Romney has just enough of enough where he needs it and when the smoke settles on Tuesday he will be the President-Elect.

November 7th Headline: Romney Wins by 7%

Gallup recently published two articles based on polling that projected the electorate demographically, 2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008, and this year’s voter turnout, U.S. Voter Turnout Will Likely Fall Short of 2004, 2008.

The first title is a bit misleading because the demographics are very similar to 2008 but the party affiliation numbers are considerably different. In 2008 Gallup predicted +10% for the Democrats and this year they predict plus 1% for Republicans, hardly the same. Ultimately exit polling from 2008 reported a seven-point advantage for the Democrats so Gallup missed by 3%, so the question is are they right about 2012?

The answer may lie in exploring recent polling and projected party affiliations coupled with voter enthusiasm numbers. Looking at four sources that use varying methods to determine party affiliation we see an average that puts the Democrats at plus 3.9% or just over half of the 2008 spread.

Now looking at voter enthusiasm numbers from five sources that span the political spectrum we see an average that favors Republicans by 5.4% notwithstanding the value of Romney’s lead with Independents.

Overlaying the average party affiliations with the voter enthusiasm numbers a spread of 1.8% that favors Democrats is realistic. Ironically if Gallup misses by the same 3% this year the Democrats would net a plus 2% spread. Close enough for government work and to make a point here.

Using variables ranging from +1% to +6% in favor of the Democrats and weighting the last ten national polls from Real Clear Politics, Romney is the popular vote winner with anything less than a Democrat +6% spread. If the spread is exactly 1.8% the projected margin of victory for Romney would be 7%.

From a purely mathematical perspective if Gallup is anywhere near accurate in their current electorate projections, and their projected lower voter turnout that favors Republicans, you just may see headlines that read “Romney Wins by 7%” on November 7th.

Why Obama is Tanking in Wisconsin

Previously I wrote How Romney Can Win Without Ohio and noted the election could actually be decided in Wisconsin. Not that Romney is abandoning Ohio, because it’s a virtual tie in my book, but it is quite possible Wisconsin will be the state that picks our next President, and that invites a deeper dive.

A few media outlets have acknowledged the state may be in play and Tom Bevan weighed in most recently at Real Clear Politics with In Wisconsin, It’s Game On. If Wisconsin is the new Ohio or not, it is apparent the state is a potential game changer.

Of the eight swing states, Wisconsin is the one where Obama is suffering the largest drop in support from 2008. He won there by 13.9% in 2008 but has seen his lead shrink to only 2.3% according to today’s RCP Average. Notably this is down from a 6.7% advantage on October 1 and the last poll in Wisconsin, from Rasmussen Reports, puts the race dead-even.

Using the CNN exit polls for 2008 and averaging the last four state polls from Rasmussen, NBC, Marquette University and PPP, and looking at 12 key indicators it’s clear Obama has some serious problems.

Obama has lost ground in every demographic group with more than half of them double-digits losses including notable drops of 26% with non-whites and 23% with Independents.

Even with these precipitous drops in support Obama does hold a slight lead according to the RCP Average but the trendlines are clearly in Romney’s favor.

There have been few recent public polls from Wisconsin so any further erosion of Obama support cannot be confirmed empirically but it certainly exists and it could be the linchpin to a Romney victory on November 6.

One Chart: Obama’s Messiah to Pariah Plummet

In 2008 Barack Obama carried the ten battleground states shown below by an average of 9.5% which in political terms is a blowout, but the party is clearly over.

In 2012 the RCP Average has an average Obama lead of just 1.7% which, being well within the margin of error is a statistical tie. Little *HOPE* but lots of *CHANGE* to the tune of an 88% reduction in support.

With an average empirical loss of 7.8% in support perhaps that *FORWARD* slogan should be changed to *DOWN* because that’s where President Obama is headed.

Romney Gaining More Support from Moderates

Two weeks ago in Romney Gaining Support from Moderates and Liberals I noted the increased support Mitt Romney was seeing from both Liberals and Moderates. In the last two weeks he’s lost a few Liberals, made more gains with Conservatives and has grabbed a considerable number of Moderates.

The Liberal swing has been 3.1% in Obama’s favor as he has reclaimed some of his base, while Romney has seen a 4.6% swing with Conservatives as Obama has lost 2.4% of them while Romney has gained 2.2%.

But the major shift has been with self-described Moderates where Obama has lost 5.8% while Romney has gained 4.2% for a 10 point swing.

All of these numbers are within the eight swing states and while Obama still has a lead with Moderates this recent shift in support could be critical in those states that will decide the outcome of the election.

Looking at the most recent six polls in each swing state (all within the last two weeks) the optics are clear that Romney is surging with Moderate voters at a critical time.

If Romney can maintain this trend while holding, as it seems clear he will, the Conservatives we may be looking at the most important shift in support leading up to Election Day.

Further evidence that Moderates may be coming disenchanted with Obama is Romney’s current lead with Independent voters nationally and a comparative view of how he’s doing with Moderates now versus 2008 with Obama against John McCain.

Using the averages from several exit polls in 2008 compared to today’s numbers from the polls mentioned above, Governor Romney is running 7.5% ahead of the Obama/McCain split four years ago. It’s also notable that the Conservative spread is almost 19% with a small 1% gain with Liberals when compared to McCain.

In Romney Regaining Support of Conservatives I noted the resurgence of Conservatives moving back to Romney with a two-week gain of 8.8% and two weeks ago Romney saw a bounce of 7.2% from Liberals.

In the last two weeks, Romney has given back some Liberals but added to his Conservative support and realized a considerable bump from Moderates. If these trends continue for another 9 days, or just remain stable, it could be the deciding difference in the critical states that will determine our next President.