A Comfortable Win for Mitt Romney

Governor Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States with a comfortable victory on Tuesday.

I predict the popular vote will be +4.3% and the Electoral College will be 285 to 253 based on a final voter affiliation spread of +1.9% favoring the Democrats.

The projected party spread of 1.9% was calculated using the same methodology I explained in November 7th Headline: Romney Wins by 7% using the latest polling available. Further support for that spread was established using the average party affiliations and voter enthusiasm numbers from the last dozen national polls. Additionally the average decline in support for President Obama from 2008 in the eight swing states estimates the same spread.

Colorado – Romney
Advantages in favorability and handling the economy combined with a stronger Republican enthusiasm put Colorado in the Romney column.

Florida – Romney
Romney made big gains following the first debate and has never looked back since. This momentum plus his advantage with seniors makes this one a no-brainer for Romney.

Iowa – Romney
The numbers say this one will be tight but a 4% lead in handling the economy and the Evangelical vote will let Romney squeak by and add this one to the win column.

Michigan- Obama
Obama played this one well and established a narrative and early lead that Romney just cannot overcome. Not one of my *eight swing states* but this one is solidly Obama’s.

Nevada – Obama
With his big lead among Latinos and the upper-hand in favorability and handling the economy, the numbers give this one to Obama. However if the Mormon vote is much larger than anticipated this could be a surprise winner for Romney.

New Hampshire – Romney
Strong favorability and handling the economy numbers plus a smaller but valuable edge in Independent support and voter enthusiasm push this one to Romney.

Ohio – Romney
The tightest of the tight with the numbers, on the surface, making it almost impossible to call but the last six polls averaged a D +6% sampling and by the slightest of margins that swings this plum to Romney.

Pennsylvania – Obama
The upset opportunity of the election but Obama’s early lead and strength in the Philly area make this just a bit too much of a stretch for Romney and I’m keeping it where I’ve had it, Obama.

Virginia – Romney
A double-digit lead with Independents is probably enough to slide this one under the Romney column but, here again, the last six polls are oversampled with Democrats and the real numbers make this one easier than expected for Romney.

Wisconsin – Obama
Another upset possibility but Obama is just strong enough across the board to hang on to this one and has a reasonable edge with Independents, advantage Obama.

In conclusion, it comes down to very small deltas in virtually every swing state but Romney has just enough of enough where he needs it and when the smoke settles on Tuesday he will be the President-Elect.

About Tom Dougherty

Political data expert and small biz owner. I detest apathy, ignorance & sloth and respect personal accountability & responsibility.
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2 Responses to A Comfortable Win for Mitt Romney

  1. No way am I a data expert, just a guy who lived all over Iowa for many years. Romney has support on the economy, but the state is heavily in favor of marriage equality and is pro-choice in both rural and urban areas. I don’t believe he will win there, due to his stands on these issues.

  2. Pingback: On Election Eve, The Race Is Close But Obama Has The Advantage

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